Out in Greene County, Iowa

In Iowa politics: Terry Branstad? Told you so. Roxanne Conlin? Told ’er no. Plus, you scared?

By CHUCK OFFENBURGER
November 10, 2009
COOPER, IOWA

Well, well, well. Wasn’t the debut of the new Republican gubernatorial campaign of Terry Branstad last weekend just a pip!

I had written twice here that I don’t think it’s a good idea for the 62-year-old Branstad to be getting into the race. Yes, he’s a four-term former governor, one of the most popular politicians Iowa ever produced. But he’s been out of office since very early 1999, and he hasn’t been in an election race since 1994. Much has changed in that time. (You can read those two columns by clicking here and clicking here.)

But he has gone right ahead and announced he’s running, urged on by a bunch of people my age and older who, in their own peculiar way, want to re-invent Camelot.

So Saturday night was his much-ballyhooed official entry into the race. The Republican Party of Iowa was holding a “leadership event” at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines, including lots of speeches, one even by a possible presidential candidate, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. But the most anticipated speech was Branstad’s, because it was his first as a born-again candidate for governor. The five other Republicans running for governor also spoke.

From all the reviews I’ve read that night and in subsequent days, Branstad’s presentation was “underwhelming,” if you want to pick-up the most common description.

Kathie Obradovich, the Des Moines Register’s new political columnist who, by the way, has quickly hit a nice stride in her columns and blogs, gave this description in her Sunday Register column:

“Former Gov. Terry Branstad’s debut performance as a 2010 Republican candidate for governor included an assurance that his political instincts aren’t rusty.

“But his first applause line fell flat, and he stepped over the audience on the next one. He occasionally stumbled through reading his remarks, including this one: ‘I know there are some that say, well, you’ve been out of politics a few years, you may have lost a few, uh, you may have lost a few uh, uh, of your steps.’

“The audience of about 500 at the Republican Party of Iowa’s ‘Leadership for Iowa’ dinner was polite. But there was no sense of excitement for the candidate who many believe is the favorite for the nomination.”

That had to inspire some personal reflection when the Sunday Register arrived in the Branstad mailbox.

Even tougher was a headline that was on a blog that Obradovich wrote from the Saturday night event: “Branstad needs more practice.”

Ouch!


I’VE ALWAYS LIKED AND RESPECTED ROXANNE CONLIN. Still, I was surprised on November 2 to find a Facebook direct message from her asking me, “What do you think? Should I run?” Of course, I recognized that the 65-year-old highly-successful attorney in Des Moines was probably asking many people the same question – should she be launching a campaign for the Democratic nomination to the U.S. Senate? She’d face at least three primary opponents, and the winner will be challenging Iowa’s senior political figure, Senator Charles Grassley, the 76-year-old Republican who is seeking his sixth term.

Conlin, as you probably know, was the Democratic nominee for governor in 1982, and was beaten by the young Terry Branstad. (Think back on that: She was 38 years old at the time, Branstad was 36, and few people were saying that either was too young to run and serve. A little different from today, huh?) Since that ’82 loss, she’s built a highly-respected law practice, first in the area of civil rights, then evolving toward winning some huge financial judgments against such defendants as Microsoft. Best of all, she is fun, and has been for as long as I’ve known her.

So, here was my answer to Conlin:

Hi Roxanne,

I’m surprised you asked me, Republican that I am for the past 10-plus years, but I will respond. You know that I really admire your long, good, career, as well as the great spirit you bring to life. I also probably agree with you on many, if not most, public issues, but we line up on different sides of the abortion issue. So consider that’s the perspective I bring to your question.

Now, here’s my honest assessment of the race, based on my reading of Iowa politics right now and my hunches about the next year: I don’t think you should run. I don’t think you can beat Senator Grassley. I’ll grant you, he is a bit wobbly right now, probably moreso than at any point in his career, due to his weak performance last summer in the town meetings on health care reform. I think he was somewhat panicked, which is uncharacteristic of him. However, that’s then and now, and the election is a whole year from this week. I expect Grassley will be back on top of his game soon, and will even wind up having an influential and generally-acclaimed role in brokering the final legislation for health care reform.

So, if he emerges strong in the public’s eyes on that issue, then you face uphill battles in three other areas: 1) Iowans recognize what a huge advantage it is to have the fantastic seniority of both Senator Grassley and Senator Harkin working for them, especially as we face reapportionment and loss of a U.S. House seat post-2010. 2) He’s got a big advantage over you in name recognition, especially beyond Polk County. 3) Yes, he’s old, waaaaaay old, but running three miles every morning and taking exceptional care of himself, he is in incredibly good physical condition, so most people will excuse his age.

If you do run – and the journalist in me is grinning at what a fun race it would be to cover – I think you will be spending millions on an effort you won’t win. I’d hate to see you do that, and then go ino your later years bitter about it.

If, however, you think I’m nuts and that you CAN win; and if you can honestly tell yourself you are willing to make the physical, emotional and financial investment required and, if you’d happen to lose, that you could put the loss behind you and NOT be bitter; well, then, go for it.

Either way, win or lose, I intend to continue admire who you are and all you’ve done.